It seems like every DFS player I’ve ever met has a method for developing their team(s) week to week. When I first started playing daily fantasy, I’d spend way too much time leveraging contradicting resources that never provided any consistent results. It’s funny though, just how much we’ll run with something that gives us even the slightest taste of success. We refuse to acknowledge that the amazing week we had was just an anomaly and convince ourselves that we’ve struck gold. It’s that commitment to a broken model that ultimately breaks our bank accounts.
It’s easy to be blinded by the allure of defining a playbook that consistently produces quality teams, but proving out a sustainable process takes time. When it comes to the NFL, time really is the enemy. You’re on cloud nine one week, three to four weeks later your reaching for your wallet to keep playing and the realization sets in that you really don’t have it all figured out. Before you know it, a quarter of the season is gone and it’s back to square one. This was my unfortunate reality for many seasons. Sure I had the occasional good week (sometimes really good), but most of the time I found myself struggling to simply break-even.
The only thing I knew I had a knack for was picking teams. I’ve been active in pick’em pools for the past seven years and running with a strategy I developed that consistently puts me in the money every season. In 2014, I decided to try my hand at a Confidence Pick’em. About halfway through the season I was doing really well and it hit me… Why not leverage the best teams from my adjusted point spread? Teams I expect to win; projected to be in the highest scoring games. My thought process was that those teams would naturally identify quality players. If I limit my player pool in DFS to only include the players from those teams, just maybe my pick’em success might translate to weekly fantasy.
The remainder of 2014, my teams started performing consistently better. Nothing to write home about, but then again I only had five games of data to consider. The next season (2015), I found DraftCrunch and that was the true game changer. I finally had a platform where I could eliminate teams I didn’t want in the mix and easily adjust settings to identify top talent. I felt I still didn’t’ have the formula quite right and made some adjustments to how I picked my defense. I also opened it up a bit to included players from both the projected winners and losers for games I considered a coin flip; they just had to be slated to play in high scoring games. There were definitely more ups than downs and I ended up (for the first time) having a strong year playing DFS.
We all know last year was a weird season… Maybe my process is just another anomaly that will prove broken over time. Either way though, I’m eager to see if I can maintain that momentum this season and excited to share my insight week to week with anyone interested.
Offensive DFS Player Pool:
– Green Bay Packers
– Kansas City Chiefs
– Washington Redskins
– Seattle Seahawks
– Indianapolis Colts
– Pittsburgh Steelers
– Atlanta Falcons
– Houston Texans
– Arizona Cardinals
– New Orleans Saints
Defensive DFS team options:
– Philadelphia Eagles
– Minnesota Vikings
Please understand that I’m not in any way saying that this is a formula that will guarantee success. It’s more of a foundation that an average player can use to develop their own strategy. These are just the teams though; finding a quality player projection source and knowing when/what positions you should prospect players outside these teams is important. Sometimes there’s still a key sleeper out there that doesn’t play for a team I’ve listed. Other times, the pool of players from the teams I post don’t offer enough selection to meet budget or produce a strong enough team. At the end of the day, it’s still football and plenty of outliers will always exist. Play smart and take full advantage of the incredible resource you now have with DraftCrunch. These guys are doing something special and you’re lucky to have that type of insight right at your fingertips.
This initial post was really meant to provide some backstory on how this all started. I don’t anticipate any future posts being this long, but I guess that all really depends on how the everything unfolds… Best of luck to everyone on what will no doubt be another great football season!